How Do Fake News Laws Impact Online Opposition in Nondemocratic Regimes? Evidence from Singapore

Abstract: Internet regulations enforced in nondemocracies, such as “fake news” laws, have been widely criticised by media and human rights defenders for their repressive potential and the likelihood of inducing self-censorship among online outlets and social media users. However, there is limited empirical evidence on their impact on direct targeted groups that typically include political opposition. This study investigates how the adoption and enforcement of state-sponsored disinformation laws influence opposition behaviour online. I analyse 8,751 social media posts created by online activists before and after the enactment of Singapore’s fake news law, as well as after their content was labelled under such a law as “false”. Using k-means clustering, an interrupted time series design, and word embeddings, I find that after the online disinformation law was adopted, online activists engaged in political discussions less often and adopted a more neutral tone when discussing political content, compared to before the law. The first direct application of the law against an activist account elicited further moderation in topic composition but little additional shift in tone. In their subsequent discussions of political topics, online activists engage less with domestic politics and focus more on international issues. This research is among the first to examine the direct impact of legal repression on online activists’ accounts. Findings from this research provide insights into how the adoption of fake news legislation and targeted attacks against users shape patterns of digital activism under authoritarian rule.