How Do Fake News Laws Impact Online Opposition in Nondemocratic Regimes? Evidence from Singapore

Abstract: Restrictive Internet regulations enforced in nondemocracies, such as “fake news” laws, have been widely criticised by media and human rights defenders for their repressive potential and the likelihood of inducing self-censorship online. However, there is limited empirical evidence on their impact on online opposition. This study investigates how state-sponsored disinformation labels influence opposition behaviour online. I analyse 8,751 social media posts created by dissident actors before and after the introduction of Singapore’s fake news law, as well as after specific posts were officially labelled as false. Using k-means clustering and dictionary-assisted sentiment analysis, I find that after the online disinformation law was enacted, online activists tend to decrease discussions on domestic policies while engaging more with geopolitical issues and transnational mobilisation. In political content, their tone grew more neutral following the passage of the law, although it did not change further after being targeted. These findings provide empirically grounded new insights into digital activism under authoritarian rule.